https://mtmalinen.substack.com/p/the-coming-economic-collapse-0cd
Part III: A systemic meltdown
TUOMAS MALINEN
JUL 23, 2024
Issues discussed:
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Systemic collapse implies cessation of day-to-day financial transactions.
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Effects of this would be felt in all levels of ordinary life.
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Preparation for this concentrates on keeping sufficient cash balances.
Please note that GnS Economics has an updating blog describing and following the Stages of the Collapse, we first published in December 2019.
When I was finalizing the second entry to my series on the approaching economic collapse, I realized that the meltdown of the financial system is something people tend not to know very much about. Yet, it’s the most pervasive economic phenomenon existing, because it affects the foundations of everyday life: how you pay, with what you pay and what is generally available?
The complete collapse of the financial system, or a systemic meltdown, is likely to consist of two parts. The first one would be the collapse of the banking system, which I have detailed in several posts (see, e.g., this and this), and the second the collapse of the financial markets. Their harsh effects would be felt directly in the real economy and everyday life.
In this piece I detail what will happen, when the financial system fails to function, where it leads to and how would societies cope after. It’s paramount to acknowledge that human societies are highly resilient and innovative towards shocks, and that money is nothing more than an IOU. I will also discuss the likely response of financial authorities.
What happens when the financial system seizes to function?
Not many know that we came extremely close of a systemic meltdown in mid-October 2008. By the second week of October, financial markets were panicked. The DJIA had fallen by over 22 percent, the FTSE by over 21 percent and the Tokyo Nikkei Index by over 24 percent in one week. Trust in the banking system was collapsing, and there was genuine apprehension that global banks would not open their doors on Monday the 13th. However, between Sunday and Monday night the leaders of the G-7 industrialized nations hammered-out a comprehensive rescue package for banks, which included borrowing guarantees, the recapitalization of afflicted banks and liquidity support from major central banks. Banks kept their doors open and credit kept flowing, although in diminished quantities. A systemic meltdown was averted, but we are likely to approach another such event.
A systemic meltdown would mean a cessation of all banking services due to the collapse of several major banks. Thus, this is an extreme version of a banking crisis. Here I briefly detail the probable effects of a systemic meltdown on the capital markets and the real economy, which we dubbed in the September 2020 Q-Review as the Reset.
What a Reset effectively implies is a collapse and prolonged economic and financial calamity. A wide-spread banking crisis leading into a systemic meltdown will spread mistrust throughout the financial markets, as well as restricting liquidity, as banks pull credit lines from both corporations and market participants leading to widespread ‘margin calls’.1 When the flow of credit freezes, all levered positions must be liquidated en masse, predictably leading to chaotic fire-sales across capital markets and skyrocketing interest rates forced by the meltdown of the banking sector—and capital markets collapse.
Alas, a cessation of practically all financial market activity results. Trading simply stops in many parts of the capital markets. As assets will become illiquid, a tsunami of defaults by investors and borrowers is likely to overwhelm both commercial and shadow banking sectors. It’s actually rather difficult to imagine a situation where majority of financial assets will abruptly lose all value, but that is, in fact what the Reset implies. That is, a re-denomination—a reset of practically all financial assets.
As a result, credit issuance throughout the capital markets will seize-up, like an engine without oil. Since credit lines from the banking sector will also be unavailable, corporate bankruptcies will accelerate at a never-before-seen pace. This will create wide-spread unemployment engulfing all sectors of the economy. Global freight will grind to a halt, because banks stop providing insurance and loans for the cargo, creating wide-spread shortages of necessities and factory inputs.
Cessation of banking services combined with corporate bankruptcies and skyrocketing unemployment will wreak havoc in the real economy and of course, in society, where real people, not statistics, live and interact. Credit lines are withdrawn, credit availability vanishes, mass foreclosures hit banks, MBS investors, and families, and cash-shortages emerge as electronic and card payments freeze. An extremely rapid deflation, in the range of tens of percent, would develop. Makeshift and alternative means of transaction are needed to cope with the lack of sufficient cash in circulation. Widespread rioting and looting will be likely as shortages develop.
It’s also possible that many governments will fail through social unrest, sovereign defaults and currency crashes. In this case, the central bank would become the only source of funding, which like catastrophic consequences, like explained in my previous entry.